A gloomy start to June for East Texas, and it looks to go nowhere until next week! Waves of rain and thunderstorms will be in the forecast through about Sunday. The good news—little severe weather expected. Unfortunately, flash flooding will be our main concern.
Let’s look at the setup & the model output for this event.
As of Wednesday evening, an upper level low south of the Four-Corner region is providing atmospheric lift for the rain and thunderstorms we had throughout most of Thursday. By Thursday evening, this upper low will be right on top of Texas, leading to rounds of rainfall (Image 2). At the surface, a stalled out frontal boundary will be across Texas. This will also aid in a fair amount of rainfall (Image 3).
This all means that we will see off & on rainfall for the next few days, before it slowly begins to taper off over the weekend.
Rain chances for the rest of Wednesday will be rather low. I do expect area showers and a few storms around, but the better coverage comes Thursday.
Expect rain to increase for East Texas during the morning hours. Most of our rain through the morning shouldn’t be too heavy (Image 4).
By midday and into the early afternoon, an increase in atmospheric lift will bring heavier rainfall to East Texas. Then by late afternoon and into the evening, rain could likely be heavy (Images 5 & 6). The risk of severe storms is low, but frequent lightning and heavy rainfall can be expected.
Overnight Thursday and into Friday, we will continue to deal with area showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rainfall could be heavy again through the night with the upper low right over Texas at that time (Image 7).
On Friday, the rain continues. Showers and thunderstorms will lift from the Gulf northward to East Texas, and then move west/southwest (Images 8 & 9).
A wet start to the weekend in East Texas as more rain continues to pass through (Image 10). The good news for Saturday is that the rainfall will be off & on in coverage. However, still cloudy, and any outdoor activities definitely need an alternate plan indoors.
A lot of rain over the coming days—with NEW additional amounts (from Thursday to Sunday) of 2-5 inches, perhaps higher in our far southern counties. A Flash Flood Watch in effect for our western row of counties, but ALL of East Texas has the threat of flooding in the familiar areas that are prone to have problems.
Please remain weather aware.