Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in East Texas this afternoon. Some of the storms will likely become severe. This is not a widespread severe weather event for us, but all types of severe weather are possible.
It’s been a quiet morning in East Texas. There have been some showers and thunderstorms in the northern areas in the early part of the morning, but we do expect more this afternoon and evening.
There is no major change to the threat of severe storms in East Texas—they will still be scattered in coverage by the afternoon/evening, but more numerous storms will be focused in the far northern counties. The greatest risk of severe weather will be from I-30 corridor and into the ArkLaTex. The Storm Prediction Center has downgraded most of East Texas to a Slight Risk of severe storms—this means that scattered to numerous storms will occur, some of which will turn severe (Image 2).
For us this afternoon and evening, here’s what we can expect…
For the mid-afternoon, we will begin to see some thunderstorms fire up in East Texas (Image 3). This will be caused by the dryline and upper level energy moving through our region. You’ll note that the storms are not widespread in coverage for East Texas; however they will be more numerous in the northern counties and into Eastern Oklahoma/Western Arkansas.
For late afternoon and early evening, still some scattered heavy thunderstorms in East Texas coming to an end (Image 4). Still, the strongest storms will be in Northwest Arkansas.
By late evening, storms are out of East Texas and we will have a quiet overnight period (Image 5).
WHY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED FOR EAST TEXAS?
Thankfully, this is not like the April 29th event for us. Why not?—Well, the upper level winds are showing a divergence field (winds splitting apart) over eastern OK/western AR (Image 6). When winds split like this, this creates convergence at the surface (winds coming together), and enhancing the threat of widespread severe weather. On April 29th, the diverging winds were over East Texas, thus leading to the 8 tornadoes we had on that day.
Because of this upper level wind pattern being divergent over that region, we see strong turning of the winds in the atmosphere, supporting a better risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail in that region.
However, severe weather is still possible in East Texas this afternoon. Main concerns are damaging winds and large hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
We will keep an eye on the weather closely for East Texas this afternoon.
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