There is a risk for a few strong to severe storms in East Texas Tuesday afternoon into the early evening. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will be possible in any isolated supercells that can develop.

Overview

The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) which means that numerous severe storms are possible. This includes most of Sabine County, the SE corner of Shelby County, and the NE sliver of San Augustine County. The threat for severe weather is highest here.

There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms in the yellow-shaded area. This means a few strong to severe storms will be possible. In the green, we have a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) in place. This means that an isolated severe storm will be possible.

Keep in mind that the risk areas are based off of the probability of seeing severe weather, not necessarily the overall intensity of the storms. This means that even though the Marginal Risk area has a lower chance of seeing severe weather, the storms could be just as intense as the storms in Slight Risk area.

Set-Up

A cold front will move in Tuesday, and will help provide the lift for thunderstorm development.

Timing

This severe weather threat will be a bit unique for us here in East Texas. We are used to having storms develop over the I-35 corridor and then move into our area. In this Tuesday’s case, we will get storm development here in East Texas.

There will be a few showers and storms early Tuesday, but severe weather is not expected with this initial activity. However, we’ll have to watch any storm that develops between 12 PM and 9 PM for potential severe weather.

WHAT TO YOU NEED TO DO?

Know where your tornado safe place is. A storm shelter or basement is the safest place to be. The next safest place to be is inside an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy structure. If you live in a mobile or manufactured home, make sure to find a sturdier place you can go to well ahead of the severe weather threat.

Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts, including the East Texas Storm Team app and a NOAA Weather Radio. If a Tornado Watch is issued, then conditions are favorable for tornadoes to develop. This is the time to prepare and pay very close attention the forecast. Move to a sturdier structure if you live in a mobile home. If a Tornado Warning is issued, that means a tornado could be imminent. This is the time to get to your tornado safe place.