Early Alert: Arctic cold arriving late week

Weather Talk

TYLER, Texas (KETK) – Forecast models continue to show the threat of bitterly cold weather for East Texas at the end of this week and for Valentine’s weekend. This is an evolving forecast and will change in the coming days.

THE CAUSE OF THE ARCTIC BLAST – THE POLAR VORTEX

The polar vortex is an area of some of the coldest air on the planet, kept contained over the Arctic and North Pole by the prevailing jet stream. Read more about it here.

PROJECTED TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK

We will begin to see the colder air push in on Thursday, with the potential of below-freezing temperatures as early as Friday. Let’s break it down more.

THURSDAY

Rain continues Thursday morning into the afternoon, with temperatures holding mainly in the 40s. Colder Thursday night into Friday.

FRIDAY

For now, a low wintry precipitation chance under cloudy skies. The colder air settling in, with the worse expected for the weekend.

SATURDAY

On this day, our Global forecast model shows signs of a potential winter weather event for East Texas. The European model (and other global models) do not show this for our area. Temperatures could be close to or below freezing, a critical determination for the type of precipitation we will see.

SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK

Perhaps the coldest weather in years (or decades) could move in IF the Global forecast model is correct–predicting teens to single-digit temperatures. Meanwhile, the European model has temperatures in the 20s but not going above freezing for most areas Sunday & Monday.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Starting Thursday night into Friday, any precipitation would be in the wintry form (including sleet, freezing rain, or snow) and mixed with rain. While confidence is not too high on the precipitation at this time, the colder air is coming.

The Storm Team is monitoring the model trends on the colder air plus wintry weather chances this week as higher resolution models become available. Stay tuned for more updates on-air this weekend.


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