Scattered storms have been across East Texas the last couple of days. For Monday and through mid-week, EVERYONE will have a good chance to see rain and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong, but most everyone won’t see severe weather. However, periods of heavy rain is expected. This rain will bring relief to our area since the majority of East Texas hasn’t had beneficial rainfall.
My goal in this weather blog is to walk you through Monday’s weather specifically, and then a broader detail for Tuesday & Wednesday.
CAUSE OF THIS DISTURBANCE:
Two features to bring rain chances to East Texas this week. The main one is coming from the ArkLaTex. On Sunday night, that upper disturbance, it was just northeast of East Texas, and it will be moving Southwest. There’s also a tropical wave coming off the Florida coast and that will keep rain chances around through mid-week (Image 2).
My original forecast from Sunday evening showed the rain chances best by the afternoon, but it looks like some rain is possible by morning. Let’s break it down for you.
The latest RPM model showing scattered showers and storms developing around daybreak in East Texas. This may be a bit overdone, but rain chances are possible in the morning hours (Image 3).
MIDDAY – EARLY AFTERNOON:
With daytime heating increasing, we likely start to see a development of more showers and storms. The RPM model might be a tad too fast on this occurring, but the idea is right in terms of storms forming with humid and warm conditions (Image 4).
MID-AFTERNOON – EARLY EVENING:
We continue with the likely chance of rain and storms through the afternoon. Areas that don’t see rain will have mostly cloudy and very muggy conditions. By the early evening (leaving work) I expect the rain chances to gradually shift south and west of Tyler-Longview (Image 5).
While there could be a few more showers around, most should be out of East Texas. We’ll be left with cloud cover and a very mild night (Image 6).
Meteorologists look at many different forecast models (sometimes too many) to put together a forecast. I wanted to show you the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model—essentially to say that it is in general agreement with our rain chances on Monday (Images 7, 8, & 9). It shows best time for showers and storms around midday and through the afternoon/early evening.
I want to leave you the updated rain timing for Monday (Image 10)—isolated showers in the morning hours, but best time for rain is midday through evening. This could change, so you’ll want to watch Dr. Robert Thornton’s forecast on KETK & FOX51 for more updates.
The best rain chances on Tuesday & Wednesday will be in the southern areas. However, the NAM model does show perhaps slightly higher rain chances area-wide on Wednesday (Image 11). We’ll be sharpening up that forecast in the coming days.
THREATS WITH ANY STORM:
Severe weather will not be widespread, but very isolated IF it can occur. The main threats are heavy rain and lightning. Downburst winds from storms can be up to 50-60 mph, causing minor damage if it occurs. Storm movement should also be rather slow (less than 20mph), therefore increasing the threat of localized minor flooding.
We’ll keep you updated. You can monitor the radar, track storms, and get the forecast via the MyEastTex mobile app.