A cold front is set to move through our area late Friday into early Saturday. Severe thunderstorms are increasingly likely after 2 PM Friday, so be sure to stay weather aware.

THE SET-UP

An upper-level trough will dig down into the desert Southwest and move through the state of Texas. This will provide the upper-level support to help organize the storm system.

The blue indicates falling heights, which represents the upper-level trough.

At the surface, a cold front will push through Texas. Ahead of the cold front, dew points will be in the upper-60s to low-70s thanks to strong southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This will help provide the instability and moisture needed for storm development.

The darker the green color, the more muggy it feels.

TIMING IT OUT

Storms will begin to develop along the I-35 and I-45 corridors around 2 PM. If isolated supercells can develop ahead of the main line, then tornadoes and large hail will be more likely. Because of that threat, the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting an area for the potential for a significant tornado (EF-2 or stronger).

Any isolated cells will quickly form into a line of storms, which will be the main threat of straight-line winds. The line will clear the area by 2 AM.

Here’s what Futurecast has as of now. Remember that the timing may change as we get closer to the event.

RECAP

We’re currently under a moderate risk of severe weather for Friday and Friday Night. A line of storms is set to move through our area Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Any isolated supercells that develop ahead of the line will bring a risk of significant tornadoes. Damaging, straight-line wind gusts in excess of 75 mph will be the main concern, but a couple of spin-up tornadoes will also be possible along the line.

According to the National Weather Service, a moderate risk means there is high confidence that many stores will contain damaging winds, severe hail, and/or tornadoes.

WHERE TO SEEK SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED

If you live in a manufactured or mobile home, call a friend with a sturdy house or shelter and ask them if you can stay there during times of severe weather before the event. When a watch is issued, leave your home for the sturdy shelter and bring along some storm safety gear. This would include a helmet to protect your head, supplies if you lose power, and two ways to receive warnings (smart phone apps, warning software, NOAA weather radio, access to broadcast media, etc.).