An active weekend of rain and storms is ahead for East Texas. The main threat is possible flash flooding and heavy rainfall, with a low chance at this time for severe thunderstorms. Either way, your outdoor plans this weekend will require a Plan B!
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Here is our breakdown of the weekend. On Saturday, widespread rain and storms are likely. This trend continues into Sunday morning before clearing out in the afternoon.
OVERALL WEATHER SET UP:
You are already aware that the Gulf moisture is present in East Texas. This moisture is staying put, and you combine it with these two features below, you get rain and storms.
1. Upper low:
A slow-moving low will moved into Texas on Friday and will stay through the weekend. It will have a hard time moving out thanks to a weak ridge of high pressure over the eastern Gulf (responsible for keeping potential tropical system “Arthur” away from the US Mainland). This low provides the lift & spin in the atmosphere leading to widespread waves of rain to wrap around that upper low.
2. Cold front:
A cold front sent some gusty storms in East Texas on Friday evening, but then stall out north of the Red River. This front will keep the Gulf moisture over East Texas. Once this front arrives on Sunday, it will bring us more rain and then drier days next week.
These two features give us the threat of heavy rain. Futurecast estimating rain amounts in the 2-4 inch range and possibly higher amounts for some areas east of I-35.